No, it does not. Let’s see why.
What is Chance?
To begin, let’s clarify what is meant by “chance.” In popular usage, chance often means “without purpose.” Thus some materialists have described evolution as proceeding by “blind, purposeless chance.” But to mathematicians, statisticians, and scientists, chance simply means non-determinacy; that is, it describes situations where there is no pre-determined outcome.
Looked at in this way, chance can be used purposefully. There are many examples. The enjoyment of board games often depends on chance elements such as spinners, dice, or cards. Sports events often begin with a coin flip and this is seen as a fair way to decide matters such as which team gets possession of the ball first. Much scientific research depends on non-deterministic sampling – the careful use of chance to help select representative elements that enable us to understand populations that are too large to examine completely.
We can distinguish two types of chance – situations that have predetermined outcomes, but which are too complicated to be predicted, and situations which have no predetermined outcome. Quantum mechanics is often touted as having revealed that the world is truly non-deterministic (in the latter sense), but this is still highly debated by philosophers of physics. However, familiar everyday situations may also reveal non-determinacy in the latter sense. Consider a coin flip. On one hand it is governed by deterministic physical laws such as the law of gravity and conservation of angular momentum. So if we knew exactly how the coin was flipped, it seems that in principle we could predict how it will land. But before the coin is actually released by the flipper, this information is unknowable. Thus before the flip occurs, the outcome is non-deterministic. So we are going to accept the existence of non-determinacy in this second, stronger sense because we want to show that even this type of chance is compatible with God’s sovereignty.
Chance as God's Process
God can use chance. To see how, let’s begin with an idea from the thinking of Thomas Aquinas, a theologian born in 1225 A.D. Aquinas saw God as “prime mover” and “first cause” of all things in the universe, but argued that God’s work in the world now is primarily through secondary agents. For example, if I hire someone to repair my leaky roof, I can honestly say that I repaired my roof; however, I did it through a secondary agent, the roofer. God’s secondary agents include human beings, natural processes that God has created, and the laws that govern such processes. Thus one can say that God maintains the planets in their orbits but does it through a secondary agent, namely the law of gravity.
Although Aquinas was unfamiliar with the concept of non-determinacy as we use it today, we can see that secondary agents often include non-deterministic elements. For instance, consider the process of human reproduction. About 100 million conceptions occur each year and about 106 male children are born for each 100 female children. However, males have a higher childhood mortality rate than females and, as a result, the number of males and females reaching adulthood is about the same. Does God directly choose the genetic makeup (including gender) of each child – that is, is God the primary agent in genetic selection? If so, that would mean that in every conception, God selects the particular egg to be fertilized and guides the particular sperm to fertilize that egg. It seems more plausible that the situation is exactly what it appears to be – that God as primary agent has put in place a secondary agent, a process that uses non-determinacy to produce equal numbers of males and females reaching adulthood without his direct control at the egg and sperm level. This example applies not only to gender but to other genetic characteristics in animals and plants that reproduce sexually. It also illustrates how God’s sovereignty acts in different ways at different levels. At a low level, it uses non-determinacy; at an aggregate level, it produces perfect order – an even balance between males and females – as well as a diversity of other genetic traits.
God uses chance in many ways. Here are two more examples. (1) Biologists estimate that there are over a million different species of living creatures on earth. These inhabit a vast number of constantly changing ecosystems. The diversity produced by genetic non-determinacy provides species with the capacity to adapt to varying environmental conditions without requiring God to make frequent direct interventions. Thus we have the seemingly paradoxical situation of chance (often mistakenly depicted as purposeless) being the means to achieve dynamic stability on a grand scale. (2) In higher animals, blood is used to transport oxygen from the lungs to an animal’s many cells. The transmission of that oxygen across cell membranes to the cells is done by a process called diffusion. But diffusion depends on the random motion of molecules. Thus animal life depends on the operation of non-determinacy.
God's Direct Action
Nevertheless, some Christians deny the existence of chance. They argue all events that occur are direct consequences of God’s will and hence nothing occurs by chance. Some such Christians argue that human free will is illusory as well – while we are free to will what we want, we are not free to want what we want. Such a position is incompatible with the strong sense of non-determinacy we are accepting here. Our reply involves two parts. First, we appeal to a philosophical principal – critical realism. That is, God is not trying to fool us but has given us perceptual faculties that, when functioning properly, give us reliable reports as to the way things really are – as long as we are cautious enough to respect their limitations. So we affirm that many of the processes that God has put in place are analogous to the coin flip we considered earlier and are exactly what they appear to be – non-deterministic. Furthermore we affirm the basic intuition that most people share – that although human decisions are deeply affected by culture, family, and genetic makeup, humans are not the deterministic product of these and other such factors but have a measure of genuine free will. Second, we note that there is a difference between knowledge and control – while God fully understands non-deterministic processes and could exercise direct and detailed control over them, God has chosen not to.
Why does God use processes many of which involve non-determinacy rather than direct action? We don’t know for certain, but some plausible answers have been suggested:
First, let’s consider the question of why God uses secondary agents rather than direct action. The Genesis account of human creation says that God placed the man and woman in the garden to tend and care for it. This passage is often seen as revealing God’s plan that human beings should serve as his stewards of the earth. By establishing processes rather than using direct action, God has made a stable, understandable world that humans are able to steward.
Second, let’s look at why such processes include non-determinacy. One plausible answer is that it is simply good management practice. Good managers don’t micromanage; rather they focus on the big picture and leave the details to subordinates. Thus non-determinacy provides a highly effective process for generating and maintaining stable ecosystems and life itself without direct control on God’s part, when direct control would mean constantly managing every aspect of billions of billions of billions of molecules. Another plausible explanation for non-determinacy is that God lovingly gives freedom and/or agency to creatures. We might say the Creator creates creatures that join in the creative process. Genesis 1 seems to support this view, for Scripture several times says God that commands creatures to “bring forth” other creatures.
God's Omniscience
Writing around 400 A.D., Augustine articulated the view that God created time and resides outside of it; thus God has immediate access to all knowledge, past, present, and future. Christians who hold to this tradition believe God eternally knows what creatures will do. Other Christians believe that in creating time God has limited his knowledge in such a way that God does not know in advance all the details of future occurrences. God knows everything that could happen. But until creatures act and/or freely choose, God does not know with absolute certainty which possible outcomes will be realized. However, neither of these perspectives conflicts with the existence of genuine chance – for Christians who understand chance in terms of God’s sovereign love, “divine sovereignty” does not mean “God always controls creatures.”
We have seen that the existence of chance is fully compatible with God’s sovereignty. There is still a major outstanding question, though – even if we grant that God uses chance to accomplish his purposes, are chance and other natural mechanisms adequate to account for the diversity of life on earth from the most elementary creatures up through humanity? Two perspectives seem compatible with both the existence of chance and God’s sovereignty. One is that God has endowed his creation from the beginning with the capacity to unfold in certain ways; non-deterministic events are among the mechanisms by which this unfolding takes place. Recent discoveries in convergent evolution encourage this perspective. The other is that God guides the unfolding of creation by steering the operation of non-deterministic processes toward outcomes of God’s choosing. Both are plausible; in fact both may be true. But at this time neither scientific nor theological knowledge is adequate to say more.